As the primaries continue on, one option seems increasingly likely, a rematch.
“We’re narrowing in running Biden versus Trump, because no one else wants to disturb the status quo. Everyone likes a good rematch. I mean, look at the Super Bowl, [we] never get anyone new,” said Andrew Hood, social studies teacher.
The primaries have already thinned down considerably, with Joe Biden, the incumbent, not having any serious contenders for the Democratic nomination, and Donald Trump, the former president who lost in 2020, seeming increasingly likely to win the nomination as any real competitors have dropped out.
Thomas Kuhn, social studies teacher, explained the reason for this,” Due to the media’s horse race journalism coverage, Trump is going to win. And Biden will face no significant challenge, so it’s a cinch that it’s going to be Biden and Trump. So, you know, you clearly could mount a charge because there are so many states left, but the media has much emphasis on who’s winning early.”
Horserace journalism is when the media gives more media coverage on who’s winning in the early primaries, contributing to them winning the later states.
The likely upcoming rematch is unique in that a former president who lost is running again against the candidate they lost to, with the only successful attempt being Grover Cleveland, the 22nd and 24th president. In 1888 Cleveland lost to Harrison but won against him in 1892. One key difference between Cleveland and Trump is that Cleveland won the popular election all 3 times, which Trump has yet to do.
Kuhn explained why Trump wants to run again, “Trump’s ego. Trump genuinely believes he won until the election was stolen from him. So this is his vindication. And he said on so many occasions that he’s going to go and this is revenge on his opponents. He’s going to go get those people. So I think he needs that vindication to validate that he really won last time. That’s what’s driving him to run. But most candidates kind of go away and realize that running as a past loser doesn’t help you.” Trump could also pardon himself from many of the current indictments.
It is also rare for the primaries to seemingly be decided so early. Hood explained the reasons for this, “ For Democrats, I think there are a lot of people within the party that want something new. Progressives for sure want a younger president or a younger candidate than Joe Biden…Because normally, even though you have an incumbent, you still have challenges to that incumbency. But the Democratic Party has really closed its ranks and tried to get behind Biden even though they’re not always for him every step of his presidency.”
Hood further explained “For the Republicans, I feel like… Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley both… I think they’re carbon copies of Trump. I think they aren’t as vocal. They obviously aren’t facing as much legal or criminal cases. But I feel like policy-wise, they are reflections of Trump.”
While Trump is facing 91 felony counts and four criminal charges, they have not seemed to phase Trump nor his supporters. Social studies teacher Neil McCarthy explained, “There’s too many MAGA people in the country that want their Trump. It’s that simple to me.”
Biden’s biggest issue seems to be his age, with more than 70 percent of voters in battleground states agreeing with the statement that he is “just too old to be an effective president,” according to a poll done by The New York Times and Siena College last fall. Biden is currently 81 while Trump is four years younger at 77. Both, if they win, would be the oldest president ever at the end of their term.
Regarding the specific effect of the trials on Trump’s campaign, McCarthy said “The trials seem to empower him…and they seem to be also great opportunities for him to get the cameras on, which is what he loves. And so it’s a nice surrogate to his campaign. Instead of going to rallies, all the cameras will come to him in the New York Court building, and he’ll have the attention of the entire world. So it’s like a campaign gift to him that he’s got all these trials. But once the trials really start, and all the evidence comes out, more Americans hear the evidence, hopefully they’ll be like, “You really did that?’
